ABS-CBN - Pulse Asia's May 2010 Elections Exit Polls

PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS: Senator Benigno Simeon C. Aquino III is elected president by a big plurality of Filipino registered voters (41.1%)

Around four in ten Filipino registered voters with a choice for president (41.1%) elected Senator Aquino to the presidency in the recent national elections. In second place is former President Joseph M. Estrada Ejercito who registered a voter preference of 29.2%. The only other presidential candidate with a double-digit voter preference is Senator Manuel B. Villar, Jr. (16.0%). The other presidential hopefuls post single-digit voter preferences – former Defense Secretary Gilberto C. Teodoro, Jr. (8.8%), Jesus is Lord (JIL) Founder Eduardo C. Villanueva (2.7%), Senator Richard J. Gordon (1.0%), Senator Jamby Madrigal (0.3%), Olongapo City Councilor John Carlos G. de los Reyes (0.2%), and Center for Alternative Development Initiatives (CADI) Jesus Nicanor P. Perlas (0.2%). Despite his disqualification from the presidential elections, Mr. Vetallano S. Acosta was still elected by 0.7% of Filipino registered voters with a presidential preference. (See Table 1)

Senator Aquino has the lead in the rest of Luzon (40.4%), Metro Manila (43.4%), and the Visayas (52.7%). However, in Mindanao, former President Estrada has the edge over Senator Aquino (39.6% versus 32.6%). (See Table 1) Across sub-regions, nearly the same percentages voted for Senator Aquino and former President Estrada in Northern/Central Luzon (35.1% versus 32.0%), Regions 9, 12, and the Autonomous Region of Muslim Mindanao (33.7% versus 35.2%), and Region 10 and CARAGA (35.1% versus 32.9%). While Senator Aquino leads in Eastern Visayas (38.4%), Southern Luzon (45.9%), Western Visayas (56.3%), and Central Visayas (58.8%), former President Estrada is the top presidential candidate in Region 11 (57.5%). Likewise, Senator Aquino leads the other presidential candidates in the country’s urban and rural areas (44.1% and 38.7%, respectively). (See Tables 2, 3, 4 and 5)

Across socio-economic classes, a bare majority of those in the best-off Class ABC (51.5%) supported Senator Aquino while a big plurality (43%) of those in the most numerous Class D also voted for him. In contrast, virtually the same percentages of those in the poorest Class E elected either Senator Aquino or former President Estrada (35.1% versus 35.4%) to the presidency. (See Table 6). In the other socio-demographic groupings, Senator Aquino has the lead among male and female voters (39.0% and 42.8%, respectively), across age groupings (37.2% to 45.4%), those with at least a high school diploma (41.2% to 50.0%), those who are working (except those who farm/fish for a living) and those without jobs (41.0% to 45.8%), Catholics, Muslims, and Iglesia ni Cristo (INC) members (40.7% to 84.8%), and Ilonggos, Bicolanos, Warays, Pangasinenses, and those from other ethnolinguistic groupings (38.9% to 58.2%). (See Tables 7, 8, 9, 10, 11 and 12).

VICE-PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS: Makati City Mayor Jejomar C. Binay edges out Senator Manuel A. Roxas II in the vice-presidential race

With 42.7% of the votes cast in the vice-presidential elections going to him, Makati City Mayor Binay is elected as the country’s next vice-president in the May 2010 elections. Senator Roxas, the frontrunner in pre-election surveys, finds himself in second place with a voter preference of 37.4% while Senator Loren B. Legarda lands in third place as she garners 13.7% of the votes cast for vice-president. Less than one in ten registered voters supported any of the other vice-presidential bets – former Optical Media Board (OMB) Chairperson Eduardo B. Manzano (2.5%), former Metropolitan Manila Development Authority (MMDA) Chairperson Bayani F. Fernando (2.4%), former Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Chairperson Perfecto R. Yasay, Jr. (0.8%), Mr. Jose Y. Sonza (0.3%), and Atty. Dominador F. Chipeco, Jr. (0.2%). (See Table 13).

Near to small majorities of those in the rest of Luzon (45.8%), Mindanao (47.3%), and Metro Manila (53.9%) backed the vice-presidential campaign of Makati City Mayor Binay while most Visayans went for Senator Roxas (54.7%). (See Table 13). More specifically, Makati City Mayor Binay is the leading vice-presidential candidate in Northern/Central Luzon and Southern Luzon (42.5% and 49.2%, respectively) and Regions 9, 11, 12, and the Autonomous Region of Muslim Mindanao (50.1% to 51.3%). On the other hand, Senator Roxas lands in first place among Western and Central Visayan registered voters (63.2% and 57.1%, respectively). Both candidates register practically the same voter preferences in Eastern Visayas (36.0% to 36.1%) and Region 10 and CARAGA (39.8% to 39.9%). Makati City Mayor Binay has the lead in the country’s urban areas (47.5% versus 38.3%) while nearly the same percentages of voters in the rural areas supported either Makati City Mayor Binay or Senator Roxas (39.0% versus 36.7%). (See Tables 14, 15, 16 and 17).

In the different socio-economic classes, registered voters belonging to Class E showed a preference for Makati City Mayor Binay over Senator Roxas (42.0% versus 33.1%) while about the same percentages of voters in Classes ABC and D voted for either Makati City Mayor Binay (40.9% to 43.3%) or Senator Roxas (38.7% to 45.4%). (See Table 18).  More male voters supported the former than the latter (44.8% versus 35.8%) but nearly the same percentages of female voters backed the candidacies of these candidates (40.9% versus 38.8%). (See Table 19).  In terms of age groupings, Makati City Mayor Binay leads among the younger voters aged 18-34 years old (44.8% to 46.3%) while Senator Roxas is the favored candidate of a big plurality of voters aged 65 years old and above (44.7%). Both candidates score basically the same voter preferences among voters aged 35 to 64 years old with figures ranging from 37.9% to 43.8% for Makati City Mayor Binay and from 36.5% to 42.5% for Senator Roxas. (See Table 20).  These two candidates also record about the same voter preferences across levels of educational attainment (38.4% to 49.8% and 34.6% to 43.3%, respectively) and among those who are working and the unemployed (42.3% to 43.0% and 36.7% and 38.3%, respectively). (See Tables 21 and 22).

In terms of the voters’ religious orientation, a big plurality of Catholics (44.5%) voted for Makati City Mayor Binay while an overwhelming majority of INC members (86.4%) opted for Senator Roxas. Around the same percentages of Muslims elected either Makati City Mayor Binay or Senator Legarda (39.7% versus 35.8%). While 44.4% of Aglipayans elected Senator Roxas to the vice-presidential post, 44.1% of those from other religious groupings favored Makati City Mayor Binay. Based on the voters’ ethnolinguistic orientation, near to small majorities of Tagalogs and Bicolanos supported Makati City Mayor Binay (47.4% to 51.7%) while near to small majorities of Ilonggo, Kapampangan, and Pangasinenses voted for Senator Roxas (47.9% to 56.2%). (See Tables 23 and 24).

SENATORIAL ELECTIONS: 13 of the 61 candidates for senator have a statistical chance of winning a senatorial seat

Four of the 12 senatorial candidates of the Liberal Party (LP) make it to the list of probable winners in the senatorial race. On the other hand, Lakas-Kampi Christian Muslim Democrats (CMD) have two winners each while the Nacionalista Party (NP), Nationalist People’s Coalition (NPC), Puwersa ng Masang Pilipino (PMP), and People’s Reform Party (PRP) have one winner each. Another probable winner ran as an independent candidate. (See Tables 25a and 25b).

Two re-electionists lead the senatorial race – Senator Ramon B. Revilla, Jr. (56.8%) and Senator Jinggoy E. Estrada (55.4%). Both lawmakers enjoy the same statistical ranking – 1st to 2nd places. In solo 3rd place is Senator Miriam P. Defensor-Santiago (47.2%) while incumbent Senate President Juan Ponce Enrile (42.1%) and former Senate President Franklin M. Drilon (41.4%) share 4th to 5th places. Landing in 6th place is Senator Pilar Juliana S. Cayetano (38.7%) while two candidates are ranked 7th to 8th – former Dangerous Drugs Board (DDB) Chairperson Vicente C. Sotto III (33.9%) and Ilocos Norte Representative Ferdinand R. Marcos, Jr. (33.1%). With essentially the same percentages of registered voters supporting their candidacies, former Senator Sergio R. Osmeña III (30.5%), Senator Manuel M. Lapid (30.4%), and Senator Ralph G. Recto (30.4%) are all ranked 9th to 11th. Fighting for the last seat in the winners’ circle are  Bukidnon Representative Teofisto D. Guingona III (25.4%) and Akbayan Party-List Representative Ana Theresia H. Hontiveros-Baraquel (23.7%) who are ranked 12th to 13th and 12th to 15th, respectively. (See Tables 25a and 25b).

ELECTIONS FOR PARTY-LIST REPRESENTATIVES: Only 11 party-list groups succeed in meeting the 2% threshold

Two party-list groups succeed in winning three seats in the House of Representatives (i.e., the maximum number allowed under the party-list system) and these are the Senior Citizens (5.11%) and AKB (4.54%). The other party-list groups which garnered at least 2% of the votes cast for party-list representatives are Buhay (4.07%), Akbayan (3.72%), Abono (2.99%), Bayan Muna (3.03%), Gabriela (3.03%), Coop-NATCCO (2.67%), 1-CARE (2.55%), and An Waray (2.11%), and Butil (2.01%). Based on the allotment of seats for party-list representatives in a ruling by the Supreme Court, 33 other party-list groups win a seat in the House of Representatives. (See Table 26).