Pulse Asia's April 2010 Pre-election Survey for National Elective Positions

In keeping with our academic nature, Pulse Asia disseminates to the public  some findings from its April 2010 Pre-Election national survey.

The survey fieldwork was conducted from April 23 to 25, 2010 using face-to-face interviews. Key developments in April 2010 include the following: (1) defections from the Lakas-Kampi Christian Muslim Democrats (CMD) mostly to the Nacionalista Party (NP) and the Liberal Party (LP); (2) election-related issues such as the purchase of ultraviolet lamps (UV) because the UV readers of the Precinct Count Optical Scan (PCOS) machines were unable to read the UV markings on the ballots, the scrapping of the P 700 million contract for the purchase of ballot secrecy folders, and the re-bidding of the contract for the purchase of indelible ink; (3) completion of the printing of ballots for the May 2010 elections; (4) various incidents of election-related violence across the country; (5) Senator Francis G. Escudero’s endorsement of Senator Benigno Simeon C. Aquino III for president and Makati City Mayor Jejomar C. Binay for vice-president; (6) accusations made by former President Joseph E. Estrada and Senate President Juan Ponce Enrile against Senator Manuel B. Villar, Jr. that while serving as Senate President in 2007, Senator Villar used his position to pressure the Philippine Stock Exchange (PSE) to decide in his favor on a matter concerning the public offering of his real estate company’s shares; (7) Senator Richard J. Gordon’s filing of charges against two survey groups; (8) petitions from various sectors for a parallel manual count of votes; (9) the Supreme Court’s final ruling allowing President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo to appoint the next chief justice (but not the next Sandiganbayan Justice); (10) calls for the resignation and disbarment of Department of Justice (DOJ) Acting Secretary Alberto Agra following his decision to clear two key suspects in the Maguindanao massacre; and (11) increase in power rates despite rotating brownouts in Metro Manila and other parts of the country.

For the electoral preference module, Pulse Asia made use of a sample ballot, measuring  8.5” x 26”, that is a facsimile of the COMELEC official ballot. Respondents were asked to indicate their preference on the ballot based on the instructions written therein.  

Based on a multistage probability sample of 1,800 registered voters 18 years old and above, Pulse Asia’s nationwide survey has a +/- 2% error margin at the 95% confidence level.  Subnational estimates for the geographic areas covered in the survey have the following error margins at 95% confidence level:  +/- 7% for Metro Manila,  +/-3% for the rest of Luzon and +/-5% for each of Visayas and Mindanao. Face-to-face field interviews for this project were conducted from April 23 to 25, 2010.  (Those interested in further technical details concerning the surveys’ questionnaires and sampling design may request Pulse Asia in writing for fuller details, including copies of the pre-tested questions actually used.)  

Pulse Asia’s pool of academic fellows takes full responsibility for the design and conduct of the survey, as well as for analyses it makes based on the survey data. In keeping with our academic nature, no religious, political, economic, or partisan group influenced any of these processes.  Pulse Asia undertakes pre-election surveys on its own without any party singularly commissioning the research effort.

For any clarification or questions, kindly contact Prof. Ronald D. Holmes, Pulse Asia President at 09189335497 / 9945602 or Dr. Ana Maria Tabunda, Pulse Asia Chief Research Fellow at 09189436816.

Senator Benigno Simeon C. Aquino III continues to lead the presidential race (39%)

With almost four in ten Filipino registered voters (39%) supporting his presidential bid, Senator Aquino remains the leading presidential contender in the May 2010 elections. Tied for second place with an overall voter preference of 20% are former President Joseph M. Estrada Ejercito and Senator Manuel B. Villar, Jr. The other presidential hopefuls have the support of at most 7% of registered voters. Less than one in ten registered voters (9%) does not support any presidential candidate. (See Table 1, Distribution of Presidential Preferences by Area and Socioeconomic Class ).

Senator Aquino leads the other presidential candidates in the rest of Luzon (37%), Metro Manila (39%), and the Visayas (47%), as well as all socio-economic classes (37% to 45%). In Mindanao, nearly the same percentages of registered voters support either Senator Aquino or former President Estrada (36% versus 34%). (See Table 1, Distribution of Presidential Preferences by Area and Socioeconomic Class ).

Marginal gains in electoral support are enjoyed by Senator Aquino and former President Estrada between March and April 2010 (+2 percentage points). However, a significant decline in voter preference is experienced by Senator Villar during this period (-5 percentage points). The other presidential candidates register nominal/no changes in their respective voter preferences between March and April 2010. (See Table 2—Comparative Presidential Preference, March 2010 – April 2010)

The vice-presidential race is now between Senator Manuel A. Roxas II and Makati City Mayor Jejomar C. Binay (37% versus 28%)

Despite a 6-percentage point decline in his overall voter preference during the period March to April 2010, Senator Roxas still has the lead in the vice-presidential race with 37% of registered voters supporting his candidacy. However, the 20-percentage point lead enjoyed by the latter over Senator Loren B. Legarda in March 2010 (43% versus 23%) has now been reduced to a 9-percentage point lead over Makati City Mayor Binay (37% versus 28%). Riding on a 9-percentage point gain in electoral support, the Makati City Mayor now finds himself in second place in the vice-presidential race. On the other hand, Senator Legarda, who is now ranked third, is supported by 20% of registered voters – slightly lower than her March 2010 voter preference (23%). The other vice-presidential candidates register voter preferences of at most 3% while 9% of registered voters do not have a preferred candidate for vice-president. (See Table 3 —Vice Presidential Voter Preference)

Across geographic areas, Senator Roxas is the leading candidate in Mindanao (38%) and the Visayas (44%). Practically the same voter preferences are recorded by Senator Roxas and Makati City Mayor Binay in Metro Manila (34% versus 38%) and the rest of Luzon (34% versus 29%). Meanwhile, a small majority of those in Class ABC (55%) favors Senator Roxas over the other vice-presidential bets while almost the same percentages of those in Class D support either Senator Roxas or Makati City Mayor Binay (36% versus 30%). Three candidates have the support of about the same percentages of those in Class E – Senator Roxas (32%), Makati City Mayor Binay (27%), and Senator Legarda (24%). (See Table 4—Comparative Vice Presidential Preference)