Pulse Asia's Ulat ng Bayan March 2010 Survey: Performance Ratings of Selected Government Officials and Agencies and the Arroyo Administration

Pulse Asia is pleased to share with you some findings on the Performance Ratings of Selected Government Officials and Agencies and the Arroyo Administration from the March 2010 Ulat ng Bayan national survey. We request you to assist us in informing the public by disseminating this information.

The survey fieldwork was conducted from March 21 to 28, 2010 using face to face interviews.  Prior to and during the conduct of the survey, several events grabbed the headlines and these are as follows: (1) the Supreme Court’s declaration that President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo has the authority to appoint the successor of Supreme Court Chief Justice Reynato S. Puno and the protests that followed the high court’s decision; (2) various appointments made by the President following the Supreme Court’s ruling; (3) the start of the official campaign season for the local elections; (4) election-related concerns including double registrants in the voters’ list, downgrading of security features in the ballot, and questions regarding the nominees of several party-list groups and Commission on Elections (COMELEC) Chairperson Jose A.R. Melo’s dismissal of a “failure of elections” scenario despite these and other problems; (5) the possible disqualification of several presidential candidates due to failure to abide by election laws regarding airtime limits on their campaign advertisements and placement and size of their campaign materials (e.g., billboards); (6) the expression of support for the Nacionalista Party’s (NP) presidential candidate, Senator Manuel B. Villar, Jr., by some allies of President Arroyo in Cebu; (7) reports regarding the falling-out between President Arroyo and Philippine National Police (PNP) Director General Jesus Versoza following the latter’s declaration that he will not support any attempt to extend the President’s term should there be a failure of elections in May 2010; (8) the government’s decision to retain its original growth target of 2.6% to 3.6% despite the El Niño phenomenon; and (9) continued oil price hikes.

Based on a multistage probability sample of 3,000 representative adults, 18 years and above, Pulse Asia’s Ulat ng Bayan survey has a +/- 2% error margin at the 95% confidence level.  Subnational estimates for the geographic areas covered in the survey have the following error margins at 95% confidence level:  +/- 5% for Metro Manila, +/-3% for the rest of Luzon and +/-4% for each of Visayas and Mindanao. Face-to-face field interviews for this project were conducted from March 21 to 28, 2010.  (Those interested in further technical details concerning the surveys’ questionnaires and sampling design may request Pulse Asia in writing for fuller details, including copies of the pre-tested questions actually used.)  

Pulse Asia’s pool of academic fellows takes full responsibility for the design and conduct of the survey, as well as for analyses it makes based on the survey data. In keeping with our academic nature, no religious, political, economic, or partisan group influenced any of these processes.  Pulse Asia undertakes Ulat ng Bayan surveys on its own without any party singularly commissioning the research effort.

For any clarification or questions, kindly contact Prof. Ronald D. Holmes, Pulse Asia President at 09189335497 / 9945602.

Most Filipinos remain critical as regards presidential performance

As the end of President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo’s term nears, the prevailing sentiment toward her performance remains one of public disapproval (59%). This is the President’s highest disapproval score since March 2001, numerically-speaking. (Back in July 2005, at the height of the “Hello, Garci” controversy, 58% of Filipinos expressed disapproval for President Arroyo’s work.) On the other hand, about a quarter of Filipinos (27%) cannot say if they approve or disapprove of presidential performance while the rest of the Filipino adult population (14%) is appreciative of the same. The current overall approval score of President Arroyo is the lowest she has received since becoming president in January 2001. The President experiences a 7-percentage point decline in her overall approval rating and an 8-percentage point increase in her overall disapproval rating between October 2009 and March 2010. (See Tables 1 and 2).

Government employees (20%) and Visayans (21%), particularly Western and Central Visayans (21% to 24%), are most appreciative of presidential performance in the last three months. On the other hand, single-digit approval scores are posted in Southern Luzon and specifically Region 4A (7% to 8%), Region 10 and CARAGA (9%), and among vocational school graduates (9%). Basically the same approval ratings are recorded in the country’s urban and rural areas (12% versus 15%) and across socio-economic classes (13% to 15%). Approval ratings decrease by double-digit margins between October 2009 and March 2010 among those in the rest of Luzon (-10 percentage points), those belonging to Class E (-10 percentage points), those aged 18-24 years old (-10 percentage points), those with at best an elementary education (-10 percentage points), farmers/fisherfolks (-12 percentage points), and Mindanaoans (-13 percentage points). Marked declines in approval ratings may also be observed in the country’s urban and rural parts (-8 percentage points) and among males and females (-8 percentage points). No improvements in presidential approval ratings occur during this period. (See Tables 1 and 2).

Public ambivalence as regards the work done by President Arroyo in the past quarter is most pronounced in Class ABC (34%) and Eastern Visayas (38%). In contrast, lower levels of indecision are registered in Regions 4B and 5 (20%), Regions 9, 12, and the ARMM (20%), and Western Visayas (21%). A slightly higher figure is posted in Class ABC than Class E (34% versus 25%). The only double-digit movements in indecision levels during the period October 2009 to March 2010 are recorded in the best-off Class ABC (+11 percentage points) and among college graduates (-10 percentage points). (See Tables 1 and 2).

President Arroyo scores majority disapproval ratings (51% to 70%) in virtually all survey sub-groupings. Those in Regions 4B and 5 (69%) and Regions 9, 12, and the ARMM (70%) are most critical of presidential performance. The only non-majority disapproval figures are recorded in Eastern and Central Visayas (46% to 48%), Regions 1, 2, and the CAR (50%), and among those working in government (49%). Public disapproval is more manifest in the urban areas of the Philippines than its rural parts (64% versus 55%). Levels of public criticism for presidential performance go up by double-digit margins between October 2009 and March 2010 among those with some high school education or vocational training (+10 percentage points), the unemployed (+10 percentage points), those aged 18-24 years old (+11 percentage points), farmers/fisherfolks (+12 percentage points), those in Class E (+13 percentage points), college graduates (+15 percentage points), those in the oldest age cohort (+17 percentage points), and Mindanaoans (+21 percentage points). There are also notable increases in disapproval ratings in the urban and rural areas of the Philippines (+8 percentage points) and among male and female Filipinos (+6 to +9 percentage points). (See Tables 1 and 2).

None of the country’s top national government officials score a majority approval rating in March 2010

Senate President Juan Ponce Enrile enjoys the highest approval rating (41%) while the lowest figures are scored by President Arroyo (14%) and House Speaker Prospero C. Nograles (16%). Conversely, public disapproval is most pronounced in the case of President Arroyo (59%) while the lowest disapproval rating is obtained by Senate President Enrile (20%). Three top national government officials register almost the same indecision figures – Senate President Enrile (39%), House Speaker Nograles (42%), and Supreme Court Chief Justice Reynato S. Puno (43%). Public ambivalence is least manifest toward the work done by President Arroyo (27%).  (See Table 3).

Only Senate President Enrile enjoys a gain in public approval between October 2009 and March 2010 (+5 percentage points). On the other hand, the other top government officials included in this probe experience declines in their respective approval scores ranging from -5 percentage points in the case of House Speaker Nograles to -12 percentage points for Supreme Court Chief Justice Puno. Meanwhile, public ambivalence toward the work done by Vice-President Noli L. de Castro, House Speaker Nograles, and Supreme Court Chief Justice Puno becomes more pronounced during this period (+6 percentage points). With respect to disapproval ratings, President Arroyo (+8 percentage points) and Vice-President de Castro (+6 percentage points) experience a rise in their respective scores while Senate President Enrile’s own rating declines during this period (-5 percentage points). (See Table 4).

Public ambivalence is the plurality sentiment toward the performance of nine cabinet members and other government officials performance-rated in March 2010

About four in ten Filipinos (38% to 45%) cannot say if they approve or disapprove of the work done by nine other government officials included in this survey. On the other hand, approval scores range from 19% for Finance Secretary Margarito V. Teves, Executive Secretary Leandro R. Mendoza, Agrarian Reform Secretary Nasser C. Pangandaman, and National Security Adviser Norberto B. Gonzales to 33% for Philippine National Police (PNP) Director General Jesus A. Versoza (33%). As for disapproval levels, they vary from 22% for Foreign Affairs Secretary Albert G. Romulo and PNP Director General Versoza to 32% for Executive Secretary Mendoza. (See Table 5).

Only two of these government officials are included in Pulse Asia’s October 2009 and March 2010 Ulat ng Bayan surveys – Department of Health Secretary Esperanza I. Cabral and Finance Secretary Teves. During this period, both officials experience declines in their respective approval ratings (-5 percentage points for Finance Secretary Teves and -16 percentage points for Department of Health Secretary Cabral). Additionally, public indecision and disapproval toward the latter become more manifest between October 2009 and March 2010 (+7 and +5 percentage points, respectively). Note that in October 2009, Secretary Cabral was rated as Department of Social Work and Development Secretary. (See Table 6).

Four of the six senators performance-rated in this survey register majority approval ratings

Most Filipinos are appreciative of the legislative performance of Senators Miriam P. Defensor-Santiago (69%), Senator Jinggoy E. Estrada (65%), Senator Ramon B. Revilla, Jr. (65%), and Senator Pilar Juliana S. Cayetano (65%). Public approval is the plurality sentiment toward Senator Manuel M. Lapid (44%) while Senate President Enrile registers practically the same approval and indecision ratings (41% versus 39%). Senate President Enrile and Senator Lapid record the highest disapproval ratings (20% and 21%, respectively) while less than one in ten Filipinos (6% to 8%) is critical of the work done by Senators Cayetano, Defensor-Santiago, Estrada, and Revilla. With regard to indecision figures, these vary from 25% for Senator Defensor-Santiago to 39% for Senate President Enrile. (See Table 7).

All these lawmakers enjoy improvements in their approval ratings between October 2009 and March 2010 with figures ranging from +5 percentage points for Senate President Enrile and Senator Revilla to +8 percentage points for Senator Defensor-Santiago. The only notable change in indecision figures is recorded by Senator Lapid (+5 percentage points). On the other hand, significant changes in disapproval ratings (-5 to -10 percentage points) are registered by all of these senators with the exception of Senator Cayetano. The biggest drop in disapproval ratings is enjoyed by Senator Lapid. (See Table 8).

Only three of the 12 government agencies performance-rated in March 2010 enjoy majority approval ratings

Among the 12 government agencies included in this performance probe, only three register majority approval ratings – Department of Education (66%), Department of Health (65%), and Department of Social Welfare and Development (62%). These agencies also record the lowest indecision figures (24% to 29%) and disapproval ratings (8% to 10%). Meanwhile, public approval is the plurality sentiment toward the work done by the Commission on Elections (48%), Department of Agriculture (46%), Supreme Court (45%), and Department of Justice (43%). The Senate scores exactly the same approval and indecision ratings (41%). On the other hand, nearly the same approval and indecision ratings are posted by the House of Representatives (38% versus 41%), Department of Energy (40% versus 39%), and Commission on Human Rights (44% versus 41%). Public indecision is the plurality sentiment toward the performance of the Energy Regulatory Commission (43%). Public disapproval is most pronounced in the case of the Department of Energy (21%) and Energy Regulatory Commission (21%) while single-digit ratings are recorded by the Department of Social Welfare and Development (8%) and Department of Health (9%). (See Table 9).

Seven government agencies are included in the October 2009 and March 2010 surveys of Pulse Asia. Public disapproval toward the work done by the Congress becomes less manifest during this period (-5 to -6 percentage points). In the meantime, public indecision regarding the performance of the Senate and the Department of Agriculture (DA) becomes more pronounced at this time (+5 to +6 percentage points). No marked changes in approval ratings may be noted between October 2009 and March 2010. (See Table 10).

The national administration fails to score a majority approval rating on any of the 11 national issues on which it is performance-rated in March 2010

Big plurality to small majority disapproval ratings are granted by Filipinos to the Arroyo  administration for its efforts to enforce the law equally on all citizens (40%), increase the pay of workers (41%), control inflation (50%), reduce poverty (50%), and fight corruption in government (52%). These issues are considered as urgent by 23% to 53% of Filipinos. On the other hand, a sizeable plurality of Filipinos (36%) cannot say if they approve or disapprove of the Arroyo administration’s initiative to fight criminality. Meanwhile, 37% of Filipinos express either indecision or disapproval for the Arroyo administration’s efforts to stop environmental degradation. As regards the other national issues included in this probe, nearly the same percentages of Filipinos are either ambivalent or critical toward the national administration’s work in the areas of improving the national peace situation (36% versus 38%), creating more jobs (35% versus 39%), providing assistance to the families of laid off workers (37% versus 40%), and controlling population growth (38% versus 39%). Public approval is most notable on the issue of fighting criminality (31%) and least marked on the issues of reducing poverty (20%) and fighting corruption (20%). (See Table 11).

Public approval for the Arroyo administration’s efforts to fight criminality, create more jobs, improve the peace situation in the country, and enforce the law equally on all Filipinos decreases between October 2009 and March 2010 (-5 to -6 percentage points). On the other hand, public disapproval becomes more manifest during this period as regards the Arroyo administration’s work in the areas of poverty reduction, job creation, peace promotion, law enforcement, crime eradication, and provision of assistance to the families of laid off workers (+5 to +8 percentage points). (See Table 12).