Pulse Asia's February 2010 Pre-election Survey for the Senatorial Elections

In keeping with our academic nature, Pulse Asia disseminates to the public some findings from its February 2010 Pre-Election national survey.

The survey fieldwork was conducted from February 21 to 25, 2010 using face-to-face interviews. Several developments dominated the news headlines in February 2010. Among these are the: (1) speech delivered by Senator Manuel B. Villar, Jr. before his colleagues wherein he reiterated his innocence in connection with the C-5 road extension project controversy and the failure of the senators to vote on the report of the Senate Committee of the Whole seeking to censure Senator Villar; (2) Senator Panfilo M. Lacson’s departure from the country days prior to the issuance of a warrant of arrest for him arising from his alleged involvement in the Dacer-Corbito double-murder case; (3) various problems related to the May 2010 elections such as the delay in the printing of ballots and delivery of PCOS machines, the possibility of cellphone jammers disrupting the transmission of election results, and the lack of telecommunications facilities in certain provinces; (4) official start of the campaign period for national positions; (5) COMELEC’s decision to unseat Pampanga Governor Ed Panlilio; (6) Supreme Court’s dismissal of a petition to nullify the poll automation deal between the COMELEC and Smartmatic-TIM; (7) plans of Lakas-Kampi CMD to field President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo as its bet for House Speaker in the 15th Congress; (8) resignation of appointed government officials running in the May 2010 polls; (9) continuing selection process for the next Supreme Court Chief Justice; (10) arrest of 43 health workers who were tagged by the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) as members of the New People’s Army (NPA); (11) onset of the El Niño phenomenon which has already caused crop damage amounting to P 3.7 billion; (12) increase in power rates and fluctuations in oil prices; and (13) occurrence of rotating brownouts in different parts of the country and the proposal to grant President Arroyo emergency powers to deal with the energy crisis.

For the electoral preference module, Pulse Asia made use of a sample ballot, measuring 8.5” x 26”, that is a facsimile of the COMELEC official ballot. Respondents were asked to indicate their preference on the ballot based on the instructions written therein.  

Based on a multistage probability sample of 1,800 representative adults 18 years old and above, Pulse Asia’s nationwide survey has a +/- 2% error margin at the 95% confidence level.  Subnational estimates for the geographic areas covered in the survey have the following error margins at 95% confidence level: +/- 6% for Metro Manila, +/-4% for the rest of Luzon and +/-5% for each of Visayas and Mindanao. Face-to-face field interviews for this project were conducted from February 21 to 25, 2010.  (Those interested in further technical details concerning the surveys’ questionnaires and sampling design may request Pulse Asia in writing for fuller details, including copies of the pre-tested questions actually used.)  

Pulse Asia’s pool of academic fellows takes full responsibility for the design and conduct of the survey, as well as for analyses it makes based on the survey data. In keeping with our academic nature, no religious, political, economic, or partisan group influenced any of these processes.  Pulse Asia undertakes pre-election surveys on its own without any party singularly commissioning the research effort.

For any clarification or questions, kindly contact Prof. Ronald D. Holmes, Pulse Asia President at 09189335497 / 9945602 or Dr. Ana Maria Tabunda, Pulse Asia Chief Research Fellow at 09189436816.

Fourteen candidates lead the contest for 12 senatorial seats in this election

If the May 2010 elections were held during the survey period, 14 senatorial candidates would have a statistical chance of gaining a seat in the Philippine Senate. Three incumbent senators seeking re-election, Sen. Ramon “Kap/Bong” Revilla Jr., Sen. Jinggoy E. Estrada, and Sen. Miriam P. Defensor-Santiago, are statistically tied for first place. Sen. Revilla’s overall voter preference of 53.6% translates to a statistical ranking of 1st to 3rd place, which he shares with Senator Estrada (52.6%). Sen. Defensor-Santiago (49.4%) also has a chance at the top slot, as she ranks 1st to 5th. Not far behind her is another re-electionist senator, Senator Pilar Juliana “Pia” S. Cayetano (45.4%), who is ranked 3rd to 6th, a statistical ranking she in turn shares with former Senate President Franklin M. Drilon (45%). In sixth place is incumbent Senate President Juan Ponce Enrile (43.8%) with a statistical ranking of 4th to 6th.  

Trailing the Senate President by at least 10 percentage points, former Senator Vicente “Tito” C. Sotto III (33.2%), former senator and former National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA) Director General Ralph G. Recto (33.1%), former Senator Sergio “Serge” Osmeña III (29.1%), Ilocos Norte Representative Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr. (28.2%), re-electionist Senator Manuel “Lito” Lapid (25.8%), Bukidnon Representative Teofisto “TG” Guingona III (24.3%), businessman Jose “Joey” De Venecia III (23.5%) and Muntinlupa Representative Rozzano Rufino “Ruffy” Biazon (22.7%) complete the list of likely senatorial winners. Of these candidates, former Senators Sotto, Recto and Osmeña and Rep. Marcos would have joined the winning circle of 12 senators if the elections were held at the time of the survey. Their poorest possible showing, statistically speaking, is 9th place for the first two former senators, 11th for former Sen. Osmeña and 12th for Rep. Marcos. On the other hand, the senatorial bids of Sen. Lapid, Rep. Guingona, Mr. de Venecia and Rep. Biazon are more vulnerable as they could land outside of the winning circle, their worst statistical ranking being in the range of 14th to 16th. (See Tables 1a and 1b)

With less than three months to go before the May 2010 elections, 8.3% of registered voters do not express electoral support for any senatorial candidate, refuse to name their senatorial preferences or have yet to decide on the candidates they will vote for. Meanwhile, registered voters are naming a mean of seven and a median of eight (out of a maximum of 12) senatorial candidates. These figures are comparable to the figures obtained in the February 28 – March 5, 2007 and the February 16-20, 2004 pre-election surveys of Pulse Asia, both of which had the mean and median at seven candidates. (See Tables 1a and 1b)

Among the probable winners, Sen. Defensor-Santiago registers the biggest improvement in voter support (+8.2 percentage points) during the approximately one-month period between the January and February 2010 surveys. Other candidates registering significant improvements in voter preferences are independent candidate Atty. Gwendolyn “Gwen” D. Pimentel (+11.4 percentage points), former Cavite Representative Gilbert Cesar “Gilbert” C. Remulla (+10.5 percentage points) and AKBAYAN Party-List Representative Ana Theresia “Risa Hontiveros” H. Hontiveros-Baraquel (+5.8 percentage points). The only candidate posting a significant decline in voter support is Atty. Alexander “Pinoy” L. Lacson (-10.9 percentage points). (See Tables 2a and 2b)