Pulse Asia's August 2009 Nationwide Survey on Filipinos' Presidential Preference for the May 2010 Elections

Pulse Asia is pleased to share with you some findings on Filipinos’ Presidential Preference for the May 2010 Elections from the August 2009 Ulat ng Bayan national survey. We request you to assist us in informing the public by disseminating this information.

The survey fieldwork was conducted from July 28 to August 10, 2009 using face-to-face interviews. Among the major developments immediately prior to and during the conduct of the interviews for this survey were the prolonged hospitalization due to terminal illness and subsequent death of President Corazon Cojuangco Aquino; the last State of the Nation Address (SONA) of President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo and her latest visit to the United States (US); the unexplained growth in the President’s wealth since assuming the presidency in 2001; the increasing number of probable presidential candidates for the May 2010 elections; the controversies surrounding the selection of two new members of the Supreme Court and this year’s National Artist awardees; and the loss of lives and destruction of infrastructure caused by two powerful typhoons. On the economic front, inflation in July fell to a twenty-two year low.

Based on a multistage probability sample of 1,800 representative adults 18 years old and above, Pulse Asia’s nationwide survey has a +/- 2% error margin at the 95% confidence level.  Subnational estimates for the geographic areas covered in the survey have the following error margins at 95% confidence level:  +/- 6% for Metro Manila, +/- 4% for the rest of Luzon and +/- 5% for each of Visayas and Mindanao. Face-to-face field interviews for this project were conducted from July 28 to August 10, 2009.  (Those interested in further technical details concerning the surveys’ questionnaires and sampling design may request Pulse Asia in writing for fuller details, including copies of the pre-tested questions actually used.)  

Pulse Asia’s pool of academic fellows takes full responsibility for the design and conduct of the survey, as well as for analyses it makes based on the survey data. In keeping with our academic nature, no religious, political, economic, or partisan group influenced any of these processes.  Pulse Asia undertakes Ulat ng Bayan surveys on its own without any party singularly commissioning the research effort.

For any clarification or questions, kindly contact Prof. Ronald D. Holmes, Pulse Asia President at 09189335497 / 9945602 or Dr. Ana Maria Tabunda, Pulse Asia Chief Research Fellow at 09189436816.

Senator Manuel B. Villar, Jr.  leads presidential contenders  in August 2009

While most of the interviews for this survey were being conducted, the country was mourning the death of former President Corazon C. Aquino. Nonetheless, talks about the coming elections and who should be the country’s next president preoccupied Filipinos at this time. And if the May 2010 elections were held now, one in four Filipinos (25%) would elect Senator Manuel B. Villar, Jr. as the country’s next president. In second place are former President Joseph Estrada (19%) and Vice-President Noli L. de Castro (16%). Meanwhile, Senators Francis G. Escudero and Manuel A. Roxas II also score double-digit presidential voter preferences (12% and 11%, respectively). The other individuals included in the presidential probe obtain voter preferences of 6% or less. With less than nine months to go before the next elections, virtually every Filipino already has a preferred presidential candidate. (See Table 1).

The only significant change in overall presidential voter preferences between May and August 2009 is recorded by Senator Villar (+11 percentage points).(1) During this period, former President Estrada posts a marginal improvement in his overall voter preference (+4 percentage points) while Senator Escudero experiences a slight decline in the level of public support for his presidential bid (-5 percentage points) (See Table 2).

At present, two or more individuals share the lead across geographic areas and socio-demographic groupings. In Metro Manila, Senator Villar is the most favored presidential bet (24%), with Senator Escudero (22%) and former President Estrada (19%) close behind. About the same percentages of those living in the rest of Luzon are supportive of the candidacies of Senator Villar (22%), former President Estrada (19%), Vice-President de Castro (16%), and Senator Escudero (15%). Among Visayans, Senator Villar records the highest voter preference (30%), with Vice-President de Castro (22%) in second place. In Mindanao, former President Estrada and Senator Villar record the highest voter preference (26%). (See Table 1).

In the best-off Class ABC, Senator Escudero (30%) and Senator Villar (28%) lead the list of presidential candidates. Those in the most numerous Class D are most supportive of Senator Villar (25%) and former President Estrada (19%) while those in the poorest Class E are most inclined to vote for Senator Villar (23%), former President Estrada (23%), and Vice-President de Castro (22%). (See Table 1).

About one in four Filipinos (25%) is voting for his/her preferred presidential bet because of the candidate's many accomplishments. On the other hand, one in five (20%) Filipinos rationalized their choice of candidate based on the preferred bet's pro-poor orientation. More than one in ten (12%) cited the candidate's being helpful to others, especially OFWs (8%), as the reason for supporting a candidate's presidential bid.   Other reasons cited in supporting a candidate's bid is his/her not being corrupt (6%),  proven capability in governance (4%),  goodness (4%), being principled (3% ), and intelligence (3%). (See Tables 3a and 3b).

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(1) The May 2009 presidential probe included 16 individuals while the August 2009 probe has 15 names.