Pulse Asia’s April 3 – 5, 2007 Pre-Election Survey Media Release on Filipinos’ Party-List Preferences

Pulse Asia is pleased to share with you some findings from the April 2007 Pre-Election Survey on Filipinos’ Party-List Preferences. We request you to assist us in informing the public by disseminating this information on Filipino perceptions, opinions, sentiments, and attitudes relating to current developments here and abroad.

Based on a multistage probability sample of 1,800 representative adults 18 years old and above, Pulse Asia’s nationwide survey has a +/- 2.3 percentage points error margin at the 95% confidence level. Subnational estimates for the geographic areas covered in the survey have the following error margins at 95% confidence level: +/- 6% for each of Metro Manila, Northern Luzon and Southern Luzon; +/- 8% for each of Western Visayas, Central Visayas and Eastern Visayas; +/- 6% for Mindanao without ARMM and +/- 8% for ARMM. Face-to-face field interviews for this project were conducted from April 3 to 5, 2007. (Those interested in further technical details concerning the surveys’ questionnaires and sampling design may request Pulse Asia in writing for fuller details, including copies of the pre-tested questions actually used.)

As the interviews for this pre-election survey were being conducted, news headlines were dominated by reports concerning the hostage-taking incident on 28 March in Manila involving 26 schoolchildren, the President’s call for a campaign ceasefire during the Holy Week, the show of force of the ruling Lakas-Christian Muslims Democrats (CMD) during their national convention held on 02 April, the temporary release of Bayan Muna Party-List Representative Satur Ocampo on a P100,000 cash bond as ordered by the Supreme Court, the appointment of Mr. Enrique Agana as acting director of the National Printing Office (NPO), the series of attacks launched by the New People’s Army (NPA) in Masbate on 03 April, and continued reports of extrajudicial killings which led President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo to extend up to end of June 2007 the authority of the Melo Commission to investigate reports of extrajudicial killings across the country.

The survey’s sampling design and questionnaire are the full responsibility of Pulse Asia’s pool of academic experts and no religious, political, economic or any other form of partisanship has been allowed to influence the survey design, the findings generated by the actual surveys or the subsequent analyses of survey findings.

Pulse Asia undertook this pre-election survey on its own without any party singularly commissioning the research effort.

A small majority of Filipinos (53%) is aware of the party-list system; Bayan Muna is still the most favored party-list group among Filipinos

Around one out of every two Filipino registered voters (53%) has heard or read something about the party-list system at one time or another. Across the country’s geographic areas and socio-economic classes, the highest level of awareness is registered in the best-off Class ABC (68%) while sizeable majorities of those in the Visayas (60%) and in Metro Manila (62%) also report awareness of the party-list mechanism. In contrast, 47% of Filipinos still do not know of the party-list system which was first implemented in 1998. Lack of awareness is most pronounced in the rest of Luzon (51%), in Mindanao (52%), and in the poorest Class E (54%) (See Table 1).

If the May 2007 elections were held today, ten of the 93 party-list groups vying for congressional seats would have a statistical chance of sending at least one of their nominees (out of a maximum of three) to the House of Representatives. Leading the party-list race is Bayan Muna with an overall voter preference of 13.7% which would translate to three congressional seats. Also garnering enough votes to win three seats are Gabriela Women’s Party (6.0%) and Anak Pawis (9.4%). On the other hand, Akbayan! Citizens’ Action Party (5.3%) and Angat Ating Kabuhayan Pilipinas, Inc. (4.2%) would succeed in sending two of their nominees to the Lower House while five groups – Buhay Hayaang Yumabong (3.4%), Advocacy for Teacher Empowerment Through Action, Cooperation, and Harmony Towards Educational Reforms, Inc. (2.7%), Filipinos for Peace, Justice, and Progress Movement (2.7%), Citizens’ Battle Against Corruption (2.4%), and Ahon Pinoy (2.0%) – would win one seat each. [Kindly note that the survey has an overall margin of error of +/- 2.3 percentage points and this would have implications for identifying the probable winners in the election for party-list representatives based on current survey data.] (See Table 2 page 1) (See Table 2 page 2) (See Table 2 page 3) (See Table 2 page 4)

At present, 35.7% of Filipino registered voters – whether or not they are aware of the party-list system – do not express electoral support for any of the party-list groups fielding candidates for the May 2007 elections.