Special Reports

Pulse Asia March 2004 survey on senatorial, party-list preferences: K-4, KNP candidates in close fight for Senate seats, while Bayan Muna leads party-list groups

Pulse Asia’s latest Pre-Election Survey (PES) shows that if the May 2004 elections were held today, it would be a close fight for the 12 contested Senate seats between the administration Koalisyon ng Katapatan at Karanasan para sa Kinabukasan (K-4) and the opposition Koalisyon ng Nagkakaisang Pilipino (KNP), with each party getting six seats each. On the other hand, Bayan Muna leads all other contenders for the party-list seats in the House of Representatives.

The survey, conducted from March 27 to April 4, asked respondents to write down in a sample ballot the 12 candidates they would vote for Senator if the May 2004 elections were held today. They were provided an alphabetical list of the 48 senatorial candidates. Respondents were also asked to vote for one party-list group from a list of 54 groups.

Pulse Asia’s survey covers 4,800 registered voters nationwide, with 300 respondents from each of the 16 regions of the country. It has a 95% confidence level and a margin of error of ±1.4 percentage points.

<b>Roxas, Revilla lead senatoriables</b><br>

Given the margin of error of ±1.4 percentage points, 14 of the 48 senatorial candidates listed in the survey registered enough support (at least 25%) to put them within the range of the Magic 12. Of these 14 candidates, eight belong to the K-4 and six belong to the KNP. No senatorial candidate of the other parties obtained enough support among the respondents to place them within reach of a Senate seat.

K-4 candidates Manuel Roxas II (40.1%) and Ramon Revilla, Jr. (39.1%) are tied for first and second place, followed by KNP candidates Alfredo Lim (33.3%) and Juan Ponce Enrile (32.5%) who are statistically tied for third and fourth place.

Other candidates included in the Top 12 are: Miriam Defensor-Santiago (30.5%, K-4), Aquilino Pimentel (29.7%, KNP), Ernesto Maceda (29.4%, KNP), John Osmeña (29.0%, K-4), Jinggoy Estrada (28.1%, KNP), Manuel Lapid (27.5%, K-4), Jamby Madrigal (27.1%, KNP), and Richard Gordon (26.9%, K-4).

The two other candidates who are not among the Top 12 but are still within reach of a Senate seat given the margin of error are K-4 candidates Rodolfo Biazon (25.4%) and Robert Barbers (25.1%).

Orlando Mercado (24.4%, K-4), Francisco Tatad (KNP, 22.5%), Robert Jaworski (K-4, 21.0%), and Ernesto Herrera (KNP, 18.3%), who were within winning range in February, did not receive enough support among the respondents in this survey to put them within range of the Magic 12.

Notable improvements in ranking (up by five notches or more since February) are observed for Messrs. Roxas, Enrile, Maceda, and Ms. Madrigal. On the other hand, the rankings of Messrs. Lapid, Biazon, and Herrera dropped by six rungs or more relative to their February rankings.<a xhref='pulseasia/images/senpref_1a.gif' target='blank'>(See Table 1a)</a> <a xhref='pulseasia/images/senpref_1b.gif' target='blank'>(See Table 1b)</a>

<b>Fill-up rates</b><br>

Fill-up rates, or the average number of senators the respondents indicated they would vote for, are higher for the March 2004 survey (mean and median rating of 8) than the February 2004 survey (mean and median rating of 7). Figures for the fill-up rates are not in percentages; thus, the calculated error margin does not apply for this particular statistic. <a xhref='pulseasia/images/sen_fillup_rates.gif' target='blank'>(See Table 2)</a>

Metro Manila has a mean fill-up rate of 9 and a median rate of 12, while Visayas and Mindanao have mean and median rates of 7. Balance Luzon has a mean fill-up rate of 7 and a median rate of 8.

Moreover, fill-up rates are higher among the well-off Class ABC (mean 9; median 12) than among the poorest Class E (mean 7; median 6).

This may indicate that relative to last February, voters in general are now more able to discern their preferences for Senator in the run-up to the elections.

<b>Majority of Filipinos still not aware of party-list system</b><br>

A majority of Filipinos are still unaware of the party-list system that is a component of the coming elections in May. Fifty-five percent (55%) of registered voters still had not heard of nor read anything about the party-list system at the time of the current survey, while 45% are aware of the system. <a xhref='pulseasia/images/awarenes_partylist.gif' target='blank'>(See Table 3)</a>

The election of party-list representatives has been implemented since 1998 to give smaller parties, groups or organizations the chance to elect their representatives to the House of Representatives. Under the system, each voter may select only one among all groups running under the party-list system. Every two percent (2%) of total party-list votes attained by a group cast entitles it to a seat in the House, with each group being allowed only a maximum of three representatives.

Awareness of the party-list system is higher among voters from the Visayas (55%) and among the economically better-off Class ABC (59%).

Non-awareness of the party-list system among the majority goes some way towards explaining why a big proportion of registered voters (46%) failed to vote for any party-list group. However, the proportion voting for any party-list group in this survey, namely 54% of registered voters, is higher than the actual 42% turnout of party-list votes during the 2001 elections.

<b>Party-list group preferences</b><br>

Based on the total party-list votes cast, Bayan Muna gets 22.0% of the party-list votes, allowing it the maximum of three seats in Congress. This group is followed by Anak ng Bayan (5.9%) and Akbayan! (5.9%), Gabriela (4.6%), Anakpawis (4.1%), and APEC (3.6%), possibly giving these groups two to three party-list seats each. <a xhref='pulseasia/images/partylisy_grp_pref_1a.gif' target='blank'>(See Table 4)</a>
<a xhref='pulseasia/images/partylis_grp_pref_1b.gif' target='blank'>(See Table 4b)</a>


The rest of the following groups get 2.2% to 3.3% of the party-list vote, putting them within reach of one to two seats in Congress: Citizen’s Battle Against Corruption (CIBAC, 3.3%); Sanlakas (3.3%); Alyansang Bayanihan ng mga Magsasaka, Manggagawang Bukid at Mangingisda at Adhikain at Kilusan ng Ordinaryong Tao (ABA-AKO, 2.9%); People’s Movement Against Poverty (PMAP, 2.5%); Anak Mindanao (AMIN, 2.5%); Buhay Hayaan Yumabong (Buhay, 2.5%); Visayas Farmers Party (Agrifil, 2.2%); and Butil Farmers Party (Butil, 2.2%).

Using multistage probability sampling to identify 4,800 nationally representative registered voters, this Pulse Asia survey has a plus or minus 1.4% error margin at the 95% confidence level. Field interviews for this project were conducted from March 27 to April 4, 2004. (Those interested in further technical details concerning the survey’s questionnaire and sampling design may request Pulse Asia in writing for fuller details, including copies of the pre-tested questions actually used.)

The survey’s sampling design and questionnaire are the full responsibility of Pulse Asia’s pool of academic experts and no religious, political, economic or any other form of partisanship has been allowed to influence the survey design, the findings generated by the actual survey or the subsequent analyses of survey findings.

Pulse Asia undertakes surveys on its own without any party singularly commissioning the research effort.

 

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